odds
Teams & advancement odds
Every team's chance to clear each stage — from escaping the group to lifting the cup, from 10,000 tournament simulations. Click a column to sort. ← back to the bracket
| # | Team | Grp | Elo | Group | R16 | QF | SF | Final | Champion ↓ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Argentina | B | 1949 | 95% | 65% | 47% | 33% | 21% | 12.9% |
| 2 | Spain | A | 1960 | 91% | 61% | 44% | 31% | 20% | 12.4% |
| 3 | France | C | 1936 | 99% | 69% | 44% | 28% | 16.0% | 9.4% |
| 4 | England | D | 1915 | 99% | 67% | 43% | 26% | 15.0% | 8.7% |
| 5 | Brazil | H | 1902 | 96% | 63% | 41% | 25% | 14.0% | 7.8% |
| 6 | Portugal | E | 1888 | 90% | 55% | 33% | 19.0% | 11.0% | 6.1% |
| 7 | Germany | F | 1895 | 92% | 57% | 34% | 20% | 11.0% | 6.0% |
| 8 | Morocco | L | 1890 | 82% | 46% | 28% | 16.0% | 8.8% | 4.6% |
| 9 | Netherlands | I | 1872 | 88% | 50% | 29% | 16.0% | 8.5% | 4.4% |
| 10 | Belgium | G | 1860 | 88% | 49% | 28% | 15.0% | 8.0% | 4.1% |
| 11 | Uruguay | J | 1840 | 84% | 44% | 24% | 12.0% | 6.0% | 2.9% |
| 12 | Croatia | A | 1828 | 80% | 38% | 19.0% | 9.5% | 4.4% | 1.9% |
| 13 | Senegal | C | 1815 | 79% | 36% | 18.0% | 8.6% | 3.7% | 1.5% |
| 14 | Mexico | E | 1810 | 78% | 35% | 17.0% | 8.0% | 3.5% | 1.4% |
| 15 | Switzerland | H | 1805 | 76% | 33% | 16.0% | 7.4% | 3.1% | 1.2% |
| 16 | Japan | F | 1800 | 75% | 32% | 15.0% | 7.0% | 2.9% | 1.1% |
| 17 | Colombia | I | 1802 | 74% | 31% | 15.0% | 6.8% | 2.8% | 1.1% |
| 18 | Denmark | J | 1798 | 73% | 30% | 14.0% | 6.4% | 2.6% | 1.0% |
| 19 | USA | H | 1790 | 72% | 29% | 14.0% | 6.1% | 2.4% | 0.9% |
| 20 | Serbia | D | 1788 | 71% | 28% | 13.0% | 5.7% | 2.2% | 0.8% |
| 21 | Norway | B | 1786 | 70% | 27% | 13.0% | 5.5% | 2.1% | 0.8% |
| 22 | Sweden | K | 1782 | 66% | 26% | 12.0% | 5.2% | 2.0% | 0.7% |
| 23 | Austria | L | 1778 | 64% | 24% | 11.0% | 4.6% | 1.7% | 0.6% |
| 24 | Ecuador | C | 1775 | 63% | 23% | 10.0% | 4.3% | 1.6% | 0.5% |
| 25 | Egypt | G | 1772 | 62% | 23% | 10.0% | 4.1% | 1.5% | 0.5% |
| 26 | Iran | G | 1770 | 61% | 22% | 10.0% | 3.9% | 1.4% | 0.5% |
| 27 | South Korea | K | 1768 | 58% | 21% | 9.2% | 3.6% | 1.3% | 0.4% |
| 28 | Canada | L | 1765 | 60% | 22% | 9.6% | 3.8% | 1.4% | 0.4% |
| 29 | Ivory Coast | A | 1758 | 46% | 17.0% | 7.0% | 2.6% | 0.9% | 0.3% |
| 30 | Australia | I | 1760 | 40% | 16.0% | 6.6% | 2.4% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| 31 | Algeria | J | 1755 | 41% | 15.0% | 6.0% | 2.1% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| 32 | Paraguay | K | 1750 | 44% | 16.0% | 6.4% | 2.3% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| 33 | Ghana | F | 1748 | 40% | 14.0% | 5.6% | 1.9% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| 34 | Tunisia | D | 1745 | 44% | 15.0% | 5.8% | 2.0% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| 35 | Saudi Arabia | E | 1742 | 43% | 14.0% | 5.4% | 1.8% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| 36 | Nigeria | B | 1752 | 42% | 15.0% | 6.1% | 2.1% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| 37 | Scotland | K | 1738 | 32% | 11.0% | 4.0% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| 38 | Qatar | A | 1720 | 30% | 9.5% | 3.4% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| 39 | Panama | F | 1722 | 38% | 12.0% | 4.4% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| 40 | New Zealand | G | 1718 | 36% | 11.0% | 4.0% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| 41 | Honduras | B | 1715 | 35% | 11.0% | 3.8% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| 42 | Bolivia | E | 1710 | 33% | 10.0% | 3.4% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| 43 | Jordan | H | 1708 | 30% | 9.0% | 3.0% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| 44 | Uzbekistan | I | 1705 | 24% | 7.5% | 2.4% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| 45 | Haiti | J | 1700 | 26% | 8.0% | 2.6% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| 46 | DR Congo | L | 1702 | 28% | 8.5% | 2.8% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| 47 | Cape Verde | D | 1698 | 25% | 7.2% | 2.2% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 48 | Curaçao | C | 1690 | 22% | 6.0% | 1.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |